Prediction Markets Cross $20 Billion in Weekly Trading Volume for the First Time

Prediction markets shattered previous benchmarks this past week, pulling in a cumulative $20.4 billion in trading volume. According to Artemis data, this marks the first time weekly turnover has exceeded the $20 billion threshold, edging out the previous week’s tally of $19.8 billion. Together, these last two weeks have surpassed the sector’s prior peak activity recorded during the June and July FIFA World Cup.

Daily records fell as well. Over the weekend, combined trading volume across prediction markets hit $4 billion on both Saturday and Sunday, with Kalshi accounting for roughly $3 billion of that total on each day.

Kalshi Took More Than Three-Quarters of the Week

Kalshi captured approximately 77% of all tracked volume last week, generating $15.8 billion. Polymarket trailed far behind in second place with $3.6 billion, followed by Nadex at $481.9 million and Rothera at $272.3 million. Meanwhile, Predict.fun and Opinion each cleared the $120 million mark.

Polymarket also enjoyed a solid weekend, bringing in $770.4 million on Saturday and $662.4 million on Sunday. However, Kalshi’s rapid expansion throughout September has widened the gap between the two platforms to its largest margin of the year.

American Football Pushed the Biggest Days to the Weekend

As September concludes, monthly trading volume has already eclipsed July’s historical highs. This surge coincides with the kickoff of the NFL and college football seasons in the United States. Because the majority of games take place over the weekend, sports-related trading naturally concentrates during this window.

A significant portion of this activity involves parlay-style combo contracts, which bundle multiple outcomes into a single wager—such as backing three separate teams to win on a Sunday afternoon. Because these contracts only pay out if every leg succeeds, the odds are long and individual contracts frequently cost just a few cents.

This low unit price helps inflate headline volume figures. Kalshi counts every contract at its full $1 payout value rather than the actual amount spent by the trader. For example, a $20 investment in a long-shot parlay priced at 5 cents purchases 400 contracts, translating to $400 in reported volume. When thousands of these wagers are placed during a bustling football weekend, the recorded dollar amounts climb much faster than the underlying capital at risk.

The Fed, Crypto and the Midterms Added to the Total

Sports did not drive the entire week’s activity. The Federal Reserve’s September rate decision generated steady positioning on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Additionally, short-duration cryptocurrency markets—where traders bet on whether Bitcoin or Ether will close above a specific price within hours or by the end of the day—experienced high turnover amid fluctuating prices.

Traders have also begun positioning themselves early for the November 3 U.S. midterm elections, which will decide control of both chambers of Congress. With the midterms now five weeks away—and the NFL regular season stretching into early January—election contracts are returning to the spotlight following their peak cycle in 2024.

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