GRAM’s $52 million unlock lands near a full day of TON trading

GRAM, formerly known as Toncoin, faces a scheduled cliff unlock today (September 22) valued at approximately $52.68 million. This release comprises 36.58 million GRAM tokens, representing roughly 1.3% of the asset’s circulating supply.

While this nominal figure might appear modest within the context of the broader cryptocurrency market, the release accounts for roughly 83% of GRAM’s 24-hour trading volume.

Why the volume comparison beats the price tag

DeFiLlama scheduled the TON Believers Fund release for 7:19 PM UTC on September 22. Meanwhile, Tonviewer lists its subsequent batch of roughly 37 million GRAM for October 7, with monthly distributions slated to continue for three years.

Because these two tracking platforms report different schedules—DeFiLlama points to a September 22 cliff unlock while Tonviewer marks October 7 for the next payment due—and neither reconciles the discrepancy, it is best to treat the September 22 date as DeFiLlama’s projected cliff unlock rather than a distribution date officially confirmed by Tonviewer.

Data from DeFiLlama puts the price of GRAM at $1.44, alongside $63.27 million in 24-hour trading volume and a market capitalization of $4.045 billion. This indicates that the $52.68 million token release equals approximately 83% of the asset’s daily traded volume.

An unlock of this magnitude relative to daily trading volume is exceptionally high. A study by The Tie examining over 12,000 token unlocks revealed that the median unlock equals just 0.20% of a token’s average daily volume, with 95.6% of events occurring at lower daily volumes. The primary takeaway from this research was that liquidity holds greater importance than raw dollar value when assessing an unlock’s potential impact on the market.

What the renamed Toncoin actually is

Following community approval on June 15, 2026, Toncoin was officially renamed Gram, utilizing the ticker GRAM. The Open Network retained the TON name for its underlying blockchain. Official TON media channels explicitly differentiate Gram as the coin from TON as the blockchain network. A Messari overview of TON highlights the asset’s core functions, which include paying network fees, facilitating staking, and handling payments connected to Telegram.

On Tonviewer, the TON Believers Fund operates as an active locker holding nearly 1.25 billion GRAM tokens, worth roughly $1.82 billion based on the explorer’s pricing. With 12 out of 36 distribution periods already finished, a substantial amount of supply remains in the pipeline.

The case that the move is already behind us

An investigation by Tokenomist covering 236 token unlock events found that the majority of downward price action happens prior to the actual unlock date. The analysis noted that pre-event movement averaged −14.7% relative to Bitcoin. For GRAM specifically, the findings suggest that established tokens with robust liquidity show minimal unlocking impact regardless of immediate control specifics, whereas early-stage tokens with thin trading volumes remain far more vulnerable.

Where the data leans negative

Keyrock evaluated more than 16,000 unlock events and determined that 90% generated negative price pressure, with price effects frequently materializing roughly 30 days ahead of the event.

Similarly, a 2026 study of 52 cryptocurrencies with unlocks listed on Binance showed that 88.5% (46 tokens) suffered negative returns, averaging −16.97% within a 72-hour window. These findings are strictly correlational, highlighting market conditions concurrent with the unlocks rather than direct proof of causation.

Telegram’s billion-user wallet on the demand side

Potential demand could help cushion this incoming supply. In July, Pavel Durov announced plans for Telegram to integrate a fee-free, non-custodial Gram wallet across its applications, opening up potential access to over 1 billion users. Data from Cryptopolitan shows that GRAM climbed more than 8% following the announcement.

Because Telegram has not detailed how it plans to absorb zero-fee transaction costs, this demand driver remains speculative rather than verified.

A GRAM problem, not a market problem

According to CoinGecko, the global cryptocurrency market capitalization sits at approximately $3.04 trillion. In that context, a $52.68 million GRAM release is far too small to trigger broader systemic stress. Instead, the true test is localized: whether GRAM’s liquidity can absorb the incoming supply without a sharp local reaction, and whether any spillover will affect other tokens within the TON ecosystem or neighboring altcoin sentiment.

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